Half Point Calculator

How It Works

Not all half points are created equal. In the NFL, moving through 3 or 7 (key numbers) is far more valuable than moving through 5 because ~15% of NFL games land on a 3-point margin and ~9% on 7.

Step 1: Convert your current odds to an implied probability.

Step 2: Look up the half-point value for the key number your spread crosses. For NFL key numbers: 3 → 9.5%, 7 → 6.5%, 14 → 4%. Default is 2%.

Step 3: Adjust the implied probability up (buying) or down (selling) by the half-point value, then convert back to American odds.

Other leagues use flat adjustments: NBA → 1.5%, MLB → 3.5%, NHL → 4%.