Expected Value Calculator
Determine whether a bet has positive or negative expected value based on your estimated win probability.
Inputs
%
$
Results
✓ +EV Bet
Expected Value +$5.00
EV % +5.00%
Your Edge +2.62%
Decimal Odds 1.909
Book Implied Prob 52.38%
Break-Even Prob 52.38%
Potential Win +$90.91
Potential Loss -$100.00
How It Works
Expected Value (EV) measures the average amount you expect to win or lose per bet over time. A positive EV means the bet is profitable in the long run.
EV = (Win Probability × Profit if Win) − (Loss Probability × Stake)
Your edge is the difference between your estimated win probability and the book's implied probability. The break-even probability is the win rate you'd need to neither win nor lose over time at the given odds.
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